Hybrids: Worth the Money?
When we were in buying the Toyotas, I took the opportunity to test drive the Prius. It was truly amazing. I wanted one right then. I tried to talk my wife into wanting it. Unfortunately, she didn't like the styling. At the same time she was firmly saying no, she handed me the trusty family calculator and said, "do your thing with the numbers."
One word that can accurately describe my personality: tight. Not cheap, not low-class, but tight. I want good stuff and am willing to pay what it takes to get the good stuff, but, by God, it better be worth it in the long run. My "thing" with numbers is where I calculate everything, no matter how obscure or unlikely, to determine if it represents a "good deal".
Armed with the handy calculator, I commenced my fact finding mission. In the case of the Prius hybrid, the asking price was reasonable considering the engineering effort. There was a tax incentive at the time to make that price and the car more appealing. But the problem showed up in the pesky battery.
When I buy a car, I keep it until it dies. The average from the resale of the last three vehicles I owned is $250. The Toyota dealership actually declined to even make me an offer on my trade-in when I bought the Tacoma, "with regrets". When reading about the Prius, I noted the big battery -- the thing that makes the car a "hybrid" -- was warranted for 8 years / 100,000 miles. Ouch.
While the papers were flowing through the dealership for the new cars we were buying at a pace that makes a snail look like greased lightening, I wandered back to the parts counter and asked the friendly guy there how much one of those batteries cost. He punched some buttons and with a smile replied, "hmm, looks like $2985.13, plus tax...that's $3231.40 total" (in todays dollars) I thanked the man, and continued wandering around the showroom.
Eventually, I ended up out in the service bay, and saw a nice young man with an air of authority. I asked him what it might cost to replace the battery on the hybrid. Again, after some button pushing, he was able to respond, "around $2200".
Time for some magic. The Prius claims to be able to get twice the mileage of the car my wife was considering. Will the fuel savings outweigh the cost of the battery? Working from the backend, the savings would have to be $678.93/year for 8 years. How does that translate to gallons of fuel? This past year's average gasoline price in our area was $1.67 (this number will be increased yearly as higher fuel costs affect the average), which translates to 406 gallons of fuel.
The model she was considering claimed to get 25 miles/gallon, exactly half of the Prius claims. Multiplying the 406 gallons and the 25 mi/gal yields 10,163 miles. Thus, she would have to drive at least 20,326 miles/year at the recent gasoline prices to break even on just the batterty alone. But oops, at that rate, the 100,000 mile limit will be met in just 5 years, probably bumping up the timetable for the battery replacement. Durn. She works less than 1 mile from home, with a total round-trip commute time of 7 minutes. That can be a real drag when trying to score over a thousand miles a month.
Now some will point out that the car could be sold prior to the battery dying. True, but unless the buyer is a real dimwit, he will insist the price reflect the condition / age of the battery, so it still comes out of the sellers pocket. If the Prius or other similar hybrids have problems acheiving the declared mileage (which now seems the case), their resale value could drop drastically.
All in all, I was able to convince myself the hybrid was not right for us, never mind the environmental consequences of such huge lead acid batteries floating around in junkyards, or even backyards.
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Updated on 2005-08-25 16:54:46 by yardman
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